WPL@$30, page-79

ORG's recent quarterlies have a good chart that shows the lag effect between JCC and the resultant received price ORG gets. WPL's contracts will be similar. You're right that the contract price for the quarter just gone will be only slightly improved on the previous quarter, though there will be a contribution from the higher spot price in Jan-Feb. The real effect of the rise in Brent from ~45 to ~60 will be seen in the current quarter and, assuming it stays above $60, next quarter.

Re: the S-curve, the roof and floor only kick in at the extremes. The exact gradients and inflection points are confidential but for most contracts, when Brent is in the range of $40-80 it will be a straight line somewhere around the standard gradient of ~13%, so somewhere around US $8/MMbtu at today's Brent that we should see in the September quarter results, which is quite profitable for WPL.

I don't think WPL's share price really reflects the mid-term value of this LNG price, as I think the long-term forecasts are too pessimistic. Shell recently reported it doesn't expect to pay any PRRT on Gorgon, which implies they don't expect to ever make a profit on it. I think this view will be overtaken by events, as recently happened in coal.