WPL now a short IMO

WPL have the best balance sheet out of all the Aussie oilers no doubt with 3.2 bil undrawn cash

As an ex holder, going by the end of year report dated 19 August 2015
The oil price fell from $110 June 2014 to $61 June 2015

First half net profit was down 39% to 679 million June 2014-2015
Now with another 54% rate of decline in the oil price to currently 28%

Expect the margins to be strained oil price has fallen from 61 to now 28

nws oil cost to produce $12 plus other costs $3 = 15
Aus oil $28
Pluto $8 plus other costs $3 =11

Margins enjoyed last year between 100 and 61 oil price was

NWS= $32
Aus oil = $31
Pluto = a whopping $58


Now put those figures in today's prices

nws = $13
Aus oil= 0
Pluto = 17

Assuming oil prices remain at 28 and this looks likely given the saga all documented
from Jan to jun 2016 assume the below

nws loss of 59% margin FYI 2016
Aus oil running at 100% loss of margin breaking even
Pluto 70% loss in margin

Any dip below 28 will result in Aus oil producing at a loss IMO

Now correct me if my calculations are wrong I'm referring all figures on the 19August 2015 report
But looks like 2016 will be a very tough year for WPL , the stock has only declined 25% for the year and IMO has not taken into account the squeeze in margins resulting in a rate of decline of 50-6o % decline on 2015 from $679 mil. I haven't calculated the gas and LNG figures yet, I'm still trying to work on that when I get a chance
I assume they will still payout their committed 80% dividend payout, a reduced amount due to the lower net profit expectation . WPL have plans to reduce costs so my assumptions might be skewed to the down side of things. Cash flow side still very healthy. Debt to equity ratio I assume will be affected just a little. The Aussie dollar will also provide some help but I haven't factored or calculated that in.

All IMO
Disclosure I took a short position last night and will close once oil price improves or any material info boosts up the price.... sto and org are better shorts but I'm worried a takeover will appear and burn me off.

This is all my opinion and good luck I could get burnt
Please don't trade on any of the above opinions these are just my opinions from the info in front of me and I could be wrong on all points raised