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noobofwallstreet

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17/04/23

14:28

Post #: 67313704
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Originally posted by dtab: ↑

Regarding meters drilled / resource defined (m/r), this inevitably goes down over time, often halving (or more) between drilling for the maiden MRE and total drilling prior to DFS.

CRE's Rose, for example went from m/r = 2.5 to 1.36
A11's Ewoyaa went from m/r = 0.55 to 0.26
GL1's Marble Bar went from m/r = 0.83 to 0.31

So for WR1, if we model a decline in the rate of discovery, we can arrive at an estimate for a Q1 2024 maiden MRE:

First 5000m (Q4 2022) = say, 15mt, so m/r = 3
Second 5000m (Q1 2023), m/r = 2.25
Third 5000m (Q2 2023), m/r = 2
Fourth 5000m (Q3 2023), m/r = 1.75
Fifth 5000m (Q4 2023), m/r = 1.5

That would get us to 52.5mt by Q1 2024.

A more conservative model (below) assumes discovery from drilling this year occurs at just 1/3 the rate of the first 5000m -- and that would get us to 35mt by Q1 2024.

First 5000m (Q4 2022) = say, 15mt, so m/r = 3
Second 5000m (Q1 2023), m/r = 1
Third 5000m (Q2 2023), m/r = 1
Fourth 5000m (Q3 2023), m/r = 1
Fifth 5000m (Q4 2023), m/r = 1

Still very early days, though. All just imo.

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But Kevin said 100m/t ‘inferred’ within months?
WR1 Price at posting: $1.41 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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