A $4 offer for Adina almost certainly wouldn't be accepted,...

A $4 offer for Adina almost certainly wouldn't be accepted, based on sector valuations.

• $4 SP (with 192m SOI) = 768m aud
• At 50mt @ 1.1%, the offer would be 1400 aud /t Li2O
• 1400 /t might be a decent offer for an early-stage asset if the resource had no further growth potential
• For context, the current EV/lithia for unfunded developer CRE (34.2mt @ 0.9% Rose asset) is 1591 aud /t
• At 80mt @ 1.1% (where I think we could be by Q4) 768m aud is just 870 /t Li2O
• 870 /t is less than the current EV/lithia for ESS (no further resource growth), explorer LRS (assuming 35mt @ 1.3%), two asset mediocrity GT1, and certainly AZS

Tbh if mgmt can get Adina to 100mt @ 1.1%, and it looks like that's probably all there is, then I'd be happy with a 1400 /t sale price. That'd be 1540m aud / $8 per share. That said, while they might get Adina to 100mt by mid-2024, they'd still likely have exploration targets to exhaust. So in any case I don't think Adina gets sold before early 2025.

All just imo.