An omnibus response...
First up, regarding the Canadian government expressing their intention to pull their fingers out regarding permitting of lithium projects. That's fine but already their permitting process is far more disciplined and quicker than permitting of lithium projects by the Quebec provincial government. For a lithium project to get FIDed in Quebec the project has to get environmental and social approval at both national and provincial level and typically the process is way slower at the provincial level. What's worse is that the permitting process at a national level has explicit time limits applied to it whereas with the Quebec provincial level the permitting process takes as long as the bureaucrats like. The impact of this can be seen in permitting times for Critical Elements' Rose lithium and tantalum project: provincial permitting took 13 months longer than national permitting (see below for further comment on that).
The suggestion that Toyota sales will "collapse" in China is hyperbole, pure and simple. Toyota is already working with BYD in China on EV models for that market, it intends to start producing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China, it operates its ICE production in China in a jv with a major state owned enterprise in FAW and Toyota was the second biggest brand in China in 2022, with 1.86m unit sales. By contrast Mitsubishi only sold less than 35,000 units in China in 2022 and never sold more than 150,000 units in a year in China. Comparing Mitsubishi in China with Toyota in China is frankly ridiculous.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/toyota-reveals-two-more-electric-cars-for-china.htmlhttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/07/14/business/mitsubishi-motors-china-business-suspension/Lastly, I understand why so many commentators use Patriot and Corvette as a yard-stick for Winsome and Adina: they are as good as neighbours, both have been hitting assays over the fence, and both have taken the decision of holding off on declaring a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate, presumably so they can release big bang announcements. We should get a sighter for what the impact of an Adina maiden MRE when Corvette's maiden MRE is released in "coming weeks".
However I suggest there is another yard-stick available for WR1 shareholders: Critical Elements Lithium (CRE:CUV [Canadian Venture Exchange]). It's flagship project is the Rose lithium tantalum project situated east of Allkem's James Bay project and north west of Nemaska's Whabouchi project. The project's reserves - note these are mineable tonnes not just resources - are 26.3 million tonnes at a grade of 0.96% Li2O Equivalent. While the grade is relatively low compared to Whabouchi and James Bay the purity of the lithium at Rose is stunningly good which means that the product is totally suitable for technical grade lithium.
The other key bit of info about the Rose project is that as far as I know it is one of only two lithium projects in Quebec that have environmental and social approvals from both the Canadian national government and the Quebec provincial government to move into development (Whabouchi being the only other, with Sayona's NAL already up and running). It took Critical Elements about five years to secure those permits, obtaining national government approval in August 2021 and provincial government approval 13 months later, in November 2022.
So with the Rose project we have a project in the same jurisdiction and in relatively nearby location as Adina, we have a project with a
reserve likely to be at the lower end of where Adina could end up at (or at least there or thereabouts), and we have a project that in terms of permitting is maybe three four or five years ahead of Adina. And what does the Canadian market value Critical Elements at? as of this weekend its MV is C$388m or about A$430m. Compared to Core Lithium and Sayona, which have fairly recently moved from developer to producer status and which both have MV's about five times that of Critical Elements, it is an easy argument that Critical Elements is currently a screaming buy. But the fact remains that in the same market place as Winsome (which has no MRE and a MV of A$303m) is a lithium developer with a MV only 50% more than that of Winsome's MV. As an aside I think I read that Critical Elements has put itself on the auction block by opening its data room to strategic investors which may result in a substantial rerate of Critical Element's MV.
https://www.cecorp.ca/wp-content/uploads/Critical_Elements-Investor_Presentation_2023_06_09.pdfAnyway I just thought this is a different perspective to the commonly run Corvette Adina one, FWIW.
(20min delay)