WR1 8.15% 73.0¢ winsome resources limited

Solid rebuttal, Dandelion, thanks. On the point you made about...

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    Solid rebuttal, Dandelion, thanks. On the point you made about mineral processing CRE does say in the presentation it links on its home page that it will use a "standard froth flotation" process. In contrast Allkem, in its James Bay feasibility study announcement from 2021, said "Similarto Mt Cattlin, crystal sizes are coarse and therefore grinding and flotation methods are not necessary,contributing to low operating costs."

    Given that the JB feasibility study is from 2021 and the numbers for Rose are from the technical report of July 2022 the numbers I am about to provide are not only out of date but by differing degrees any comparison needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Notwithstanding, they do confirm that not only does Rose have a higher opex than JB but also a higher capex.

    For Rose
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5429/5429958-af5080b911b91621f1bbe435629315bb.jpg
    For Allkem's James Bay:
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5429/5429959-4ffab39424e29ffa3c40b9e86e972711.jpg
    Your comment that the Critical Elements market cap was dakked when everyone realised the capex could not be funded seems curious. If Critical Elements listed on the ASX I reckon they could raise the half billion needed in a heartbeat given its IRR and payback figures, and its location and permitting status. A couple of things I don't understand about Critical Elements is why they are so inactive in drilling out their holdings and why they have not released a detailed timeline for getting into production. Also, I can almost guarantee if Sayona had Rose they would not only be rushing into production but would be selling it as a perfect hub and spoke project. (A frustration with following companies based in Quebec is the lack of analysis and commentary readily available, due in large part I suspect to the language barrier).

    As an aside, I disagree with your logic that as CRE has a market cap of say A$430m and if they sell half of Rose then that means that they are actually worth A$860m. It all depends on what a buyer is willing to pay and whether that is a premium or discount to current market value.

    Anyway I continue to contend that Winsome can use Critical Elements and Rose as one of its yardsticks, especially in avoiding some pitfalls.

    As to whether Winsome has a far bigger resource at Cancet and Adina than CRE has at Rose I think it seems to be widely accepted that at this point in time Cancet is good for 3 million tonnes of resources, with plenty of potential, and that the minimum resource for Adina is 35 million tonnes, again with plenty of potential but Rose already has the numbers in black and white. It may be, and I expect it to be, that over the next six months or so Winsome shows it is in a different league to Rose but in terms of developing a mill and mine Winsome will have to go through a similar process to what CRE has been going through with Rose.

    Something I've not seen talked about much on the Winsome threads is whether Adina will be developed in increments or as a single big bang. For capex, cahflow, permitting and risk reasons most projects are developed in stages. For instance Allkem has made it clear that its James Bay project, at 321kt of production pa, is only the first of several stages it intends to develop. They think having 40mt reserves is enough to justify their stage one development so for a long while they left it at that but are now embarking on a major drilling campaign to JORC up for the next stage of development. Does Winsome need only to show at this stage that they have the goods to develop a James Bay or Rose scale project or are they committed to a p!ssing contest with Patriot? Certainly when at Core Lithium the hobbit (Biggins/Baggins?) did not delay developing the Finniss project until they'd proven up the resources available but rather pushed into development as soon as they reached a critical mass of resources.

 
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