Hi Heeman - I too have been sceptical of the claims by a number...

Hi Heeman - I too have been sceptical of the claims by a number here that Winsome will report a big maiden MRE at Adina. I remember at one stage Corvette was being spoken of with a "2" leading its maiden MRE and it "only" ended up with 109mt (for context that is how much Pilbara reports as an update of its resource). So, to be conservative I was assuming the initial figure would be around the minimal 35mt.

But Chris Evans, wisely or not, has been quite upfront of late in talking about 100mt as a guide to Adina's maiden MRE. You cannot unscramble an omelette and Winsome cannot talk down Adina's maiden MRE being a six digit number. I now think that Winsome will have to hold back on releasing a maiden MRE until they get that number up over 100mt, whether that be towards the end of this calendar year or however far into 2024 it takes. I think it is a risky strategy from Winsome. Clearly they are trying to talk the share price up over the coming months when the news cycle for them will likely be relatively slow. But by bragging so openly about Adina they risk attracting a predator before they are ready (any predator could currently do their sums on 35mt and would be in the vicinity of the figures the market is already working on).

I think the best ploy by CE and the hobbit would be to bring on board a non-threatening cornerstone investor to hold a blocking stake to deter predators. That cornerstone investor would have to be comfortable with Adina being years away from revenue and being capex needy. But for insurance and superannuation fund managers what's 50 million over eight or nine years? A drop in the ocean.