it's just a statement of fact, based on simple per-unit...

it's just a statement of fact, based on simple per-unit valuations (MC / lithia). It's not a question of "belief".

Currently WR1, if we use the conservative estimate of 50mt @ 1.25% = 353 aud MC / t Li2O

For PMET to be valued the same, it would imply they have 290mt @ 1.42% (MRE was 109.2mt @ 1.42%)

For LRS to be valued the same, it would imply the have 100mt @ 1.34% (MRE was 45mt @ 1.34%)

For PWM.V to be valued the same, it would imply they have 9mt @ 1.4% (they probably have closer to 4mt)

For GT1 to be valued the same, it would imply they have 43mt @ 1.14% (currently 22.5mt @ 1.14% across two deposits.)

CRR seem similarly undervalued compared to WR1, based on recent good drilling after their miserable 8mt MRE. Better access than WR1 but the scale isn't there, so it's not (yet) a particularly attractive M&A target.

One of the most recent M&A offers valued A11 (Atlantic) at 2300 aud MC / t Li2O, and it was rejected. (Ewoyaa is a much more advanced project, however it's in Ghana.)

Under current market conditions, I think the MRE re-rates us to at least 700 aud /t Li2O, which would equate to:

• 50mt @ 1.25% = 438m MC
• 60mt @ 1.25% = 525m MC
• 70mt @ 1.25% = 613m MC
• 80mt @ 1.25% = 700m MC

As a reminder, pro geo @WowVeryJosh (who successfully predicted LRS and PMET MREs) thinks the deposit is currently 76mt @ 1.1% from just the current assays (18km) and thinks it will "push 100mt" by March 2024, and will be 125mt by June 2024. Corresponding valuations at 700 aud /t Li2O:

• 76mt @ 1.1% = 585m MC
• 100mt @ 1.1% = 770m MC
• 125mt @ 1.1% = 963m MC

If sector sentiment turns around I think valuations will revert to where they were a few months ago, i.e. something more like 1000-1200 aud /t Li2O for a big deposit in a tier one jurisdiction and years away from production.

For more detail on what Josh says, see this post:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/wr1-general-discussion.6543412/page-22657?post_id=71010122