Reminder that early years of mining Adina will be higher yield due to shallow, high-grade zone.
Capex will be lower than many projects (and permitting easier) due to DMS-only pathway. I think they have to go this route even if <70% recovery.
Opex will be on the lower side due to access to cheap Canadian hydro electricity, and lower wages than WA.
So what happens if SC price remains lower for longer? Will Adina still be viable?
- assuming 1.6% avg head grade in early years
- 2mtpa plant @ 70% recovery = 373ktpa SC6 equivalent
- assuming 380m usd capex, same as 2mtpa DMS-only operation planned at AKE James Bay
- and to be conservative using 600 usd/t opex instead of their 407 usd/t opex
- SC price 900 = 300 usd /t margin = 112m usd EBITDA = approx 30% IRR
- SC price 1100 = 500 usd /t margin = 187m usd EBITDA = approx 50% IRR
- SC price 1300 = 700 usd /t margin = 261m usd EBITDA = approx 70% IRR
- SC price 1500 = 900 usd /t margin = 336m usd EBITDA = approx 90% IRR
- SC price 1700 = 1100 usd /t margin = 411m usd EBITDA = approx 110% IRR
- SC price 1900 = 1300 usd /t margin = 485m usd EBITDA = approx 125% IRR
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