thanks for pointing out that Goldman is getting it so badly...

thanks for pointing out that Goldman is getting it so badly wrong in 2024.

However even if SC6 is just 1155 usd /t in 2027, that would still allow Winsome to make a nice profit

This is helped to some extent by early production being from the shallow high-grade zone at Adina.

2.6mtpa (i.e. throughput achieved at Renard in 2019) @ 1.4% grade and 75% recovery = 455ktpa SC6 equivalent

But ramping up, let's say 2027 production is half of nameplate capacity, or 228ktpa SC6, and 2028 is full capacity.

So SC6 price 1155, and for AISC let's be pessimistic and say 800 usd/t

2027 = 124m aud EBITDA
2028 = 248m aud EBITDA

Capex spend: 58m AUD for Renard, and conservatively 100m to upgrade plant + 50m for road share and Adina capex = 208m total

So, project will be viable and IRR will be decent even at these (imo unrealistic) SC6 price projections.

Personally I think first production could be achieved in H2 2026, and I think any offtake negotiated will have a floor price.