Have we got a direction now?
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Yes, from a weekly perspective, a small drop from 80 to 76.5, but farther away from 70.5 low made this week. Volume wise, no clear indication, not giving a sign yet that big players are now playing it.
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So do we think we have bottomed? Couple of days back, I talked on that topic. There was a big rise in China Li stocks. But I had written, for a reversal, we need confirmation. At least to hold, otherwise it may look like a dead cat bounce. So what has happened after that? Yesterday Ganfeng lost 3%, today another 2%, giving up most of it's gains. I had written ALB may cross 100 on the back of China rise. It did so. But then was back to 96 yesterday. Today it's in danger of making a new low at 92. So the follow thru we needed, didn't happen. Doesn't mean we cannot bottom here, but unfortunately, it's not going in right direction at this stage. It could change though, and sometimes very quickly, as we saw few days back, slight sentiment change and 8 to 10% rise. But now we have to wait.
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Personally I had written couple of days back, I was tempted to buy, but held, telling myself I don't have to pick bottom, just the trend will do. I am still waiting, as I am not sure about the trend. Hopefully soon.
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So what may happen next week? With June tax transactions out of the way, sell pressure should ease. Doesn't mean buy pressure will come immediately, as those who have sold may have to wait to buy. But overall, it should be a much better play. We need Li macro to be favourable though. Few weeks back I had written that if ALB makes a new low below 106, it will not be good. If it falls below 100, whether we like it or not, most stocks will suffer. I also wrote some may capitulate. Couple of days back, in morning session, I could feel that capitulation. LTR reaching nearly 80, AGY nearly 7, and then China market opened and saved everyone. But this time it is looking ominous. Especially how China Li has traded last 2 days. We need a change towards the positive, otherwise chances of more pain before the comeback. But it's driven a lot by sentiment. Let's hope it turns our way. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)