I assume that CATL and BYD can only operate their lepidolite...

I assume that CATL and BYD can only operate their lepidolite mines at a loss for a certain period. It can't go on indefinitely. How long I don't know.

The competitors of CATL and BYD -- such as LG, SK and Samsung and others - don't have this high cost lepidolite on their balance sheet and therefore will at some point have lower costs and will start to take market share of the integrated Chinese companies. This will happen at some point, but I don't see market consensus on when this might occur.

I guess it depends on EV and BESS growth - the greater the growth the quicker this inflection point arrives and CATL and BYD will be forced to shutter their high-cost lithium mines. This in turn will be a feed-back loop to push lithium prices higher. Morgan Stanley thinks the inflection point will be after 2030, most others including Goldman Sachs see it happening sooner. Some see it happening in H2 2024. Let's hope it is sooner rather than later and the big growth in BESS demand gives us some reason for optimism. GLTAH.