They are also restricted in increasing concentrate production to reduce Opex/Asic due to transport restrictions.
99.9% of investors, brokers, reddit warriors, twitter commentators and Canadian Md's havent done their research how everyone in Quebec is effected by external factors like legislated road rules.
Time for a very arrogant lesson in why research pays. And, why Winsome will be the only producer before 2030!
Tonnage in simple terms reduces capex/opex/asic.
James bay has great numbers but over the last few years as part of permitting with the Cree, Arcadium had to agree with transport terms south to Matagami train station. They are restricted to 20-24 rounds trips a day during "normal" periods, and "10-12" during moose, goose periods with block out times, ie 7-10am is a no no. The Billy Diamond highway, formally James Bay road is limited by laws in haulage, it's the heavy vehicle safety act. An A class truck is limited to 63t in Quebec, however during the thaw period, depending on tonnage its 8- 20% less. This is not opinion but fact. Certain bridges along the BDH are limited to 50t Max. So what does that mean for Arcadium? They are currently transporting the maximum amount of concentrate they are allowed along the BDH so it has dictated their plant size and Asic. In later years > 2035 for an area near the mine site, rail will allow greater transport amounts, so a reduction in all costs will occur.
From Matagami to the BDH, Tran Taiga intersection its 570klm. So what does that mean for any new mines along this road north of James Bay? To mine or produce you will need to comply with the same transport restrictions or less until rail is sorted. It will be 2040 by the time it reaches the TT intersection.
What does thay mean for Cancet or any mines along the TT and north of James Bay? Due to a combination of esg, ghg, enforceable 50t bridge limits, cree concerns, thaw tonnage regulations, I would consider 200klt as the Max concentrate that any company could legitimately transport. Its 570klm to the BDH / TT intersection and no fuel stations between, so that's another concern.
The TT is also restricted to the same heavy vehicles laws, but its owned by Hydro quebec, however its managed by 3 government agencies - its a gravel road that will need to be upgraded to handle more than 25t.
Renard has no issues for transport to Chib, road is approved for 63t, no bridges, and no restrictions on frequency, no fuel issues.
Winsome is guaranteed to produce!
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