The true worth of the wheat from the chaff....
Is the least path of resistance to become a miner, money maker, dividend payer, Cha Ching.!
What are the many worth, who will just warm seats. ? Nothing. Yet they are paid a massive premium, for never delivering a dollar in dividend back to you, the investor. That is the illusion of the market that is deceived by Charlestons.
Hence the true measure of worth, must factor, the probability matrix, the least path of resistance to deliver those dividends.
When you put a high probability of success, and use that to multiply by the time discounted forward revenues / dividends.
True worth => Probability x Time discounted value.
If something is paying out say 500m in profits pa, for many years to come, it would be valued then, into a Price earnings ratio, say 10-1 => 5b MC. But how many years away, and what is the probability of reality, without fatal road blocks. ?
If you think that we have a high probability of successful transition, the market will ultimately be forced to pay more up the curve, the closer we get to that. And as when the probability is increased, so is the confidence. And money flow, will drive investment into the winners ledgers.
Some that promise big things, but are stranded with roadblocks.
Others that simply have that least path of resistance, and get the job done, will ultimately extract fair value of their dividends.
Many will back the ship with torn sails, and rot in its decks.
Few will initially board the sturdy ship, but will ultimately pick up those who had to abandon the others that sank when storms came.
There should really be only one question for buyers. Is this ship sturdy? Is this race horse capable of getting to the finish line ? Because the Long investor pay day, is not at the hands of todays sellers who displace their future worth in exchange for some other shiny thing , but in the hands of the buyer at come production, who will have to pay, what a producer is valued at.
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