WR1 General Discussion, page-23797

Chinese battery electric vehicle (BEV) manufacturers have become increasingly competitive in the global market despite policy roadblocks from the EU and US, as the country’s car makers shift focus to exports at a time of slowing domestic sales in the world’s second largest economy.

Exports remained strong in the third quarter of this year, when Chinese brands sold over 130,000 BEVs abroad, a fourfold increase compared to the same quarter in 2022, data from market research firm Counterpoint showed.

Chinese electric carmaker BYD has now caught up with market leader Tesla, accounting for 17 per cent of the global passenger BEV unit sales in the third quarter, up from a 13 per cent market share a year earlier. Counterpoint expects BYD to surpass Tesla in the fourth quarter to become the world’s bestselling BEV brand.

“The influx of low-cost BEVs from China has been adversely affecting Europe’s domestic carmakers,” said Jeff Fieldhack, research director at Counterpoint. “This underlines the growing competitiveness in the BEV market, which is expected to intensify further.”

To counter China’s influence in the Western auto market, both Europe and the US are expected to make substantial investments to secure access to essential minerals required for making electric car batteries, to improve the affordability of their BEVs and reduce dependence on China, according to Soumen Mandal, senior analyst at Counterpoint.

Exports of Chinese BEVs in the third quarter were strong despite the sluggish domestic sales in the same period. Domestic BEV sales grew only 11 per cent year on year in the third quarter, below the global average of 29 per cent, according to Counterpoint.

China holds 58 per cent of the global BEV market, taking pole position ahead of the US which accounted for around 12 per cent, according to Mandal.

He expects annual BEV sales to reach almost 10 million units globally in 2023.

Faced with the intensifying price competition in China’s fast-growing but crowded automobile market, more Chinese electric carmakers are turning overseas, with leading players Xpeng, BYD, and Leapmotor expanding footprints in markets like Europe, the world’s second-largest EV market after China.

In October, China’s EV exports, including BEVs and plug-in hybrids, to the European Union (EU) topped US$2 billion for the first time, 30 per cent higher than the same month in 2022, according to the Chinese customs authorities last month.

In September, the EU launched an investigation into Chinese-made EVs, alleging that Beijing offered state subsidies to carmakers to help them keep their prices low. China has condemned the EU’s probe, calling it “ sheer protectionism”.

The Inflation Reduction Act, introduced by the US government in 2022, also focused on localising EV manufacturing supply chains to reduce its dependence on China, although it has allowed some China-sourced EV and battery minerals to be eligible for tax credits.

Despite the probe into suspected state subsidies, Chinese EV makers are expected to maintain their edge in the EU market with a sales growth of 30 per cent to 35 per cent in 2024, according to Wu Bohua, an analyst at Changjiang Securities in a report on Tuesday.

Domestically, EV sales in mainland China, including plug-in hybrid vehicles, would grow by 20 per cent in 2024, slowing from an expected 30 per cent year-on-year rise in 2023, according to ratings agency Fitch last month.

“The [EV] market [in China] will continue to grow, but heightened competition may force major players to offer discounts to attract buyers, hence affecting their profitability,” said Ivan Li, fund manager at Loyal Wealth Management in Shanghai.

“Besides, uncertain economic prospects are weighing on millions of Chinese consumers, deterring them from making decisions on big-ticket item purchases.”