rough modelling based on 1350 USD /t SC6:
Adina phase 1 (Y1-8):
- reserve say 20mt @ 1.4% (surface high-grade part of main zone)
- 2.5ktpa feed @ 1.4% grade and 75% recovery = 438ktpa SC6 equivalent (477ktpa SC5.5)
- AISC say 720 USD /t and sale price 1350 USD /t = 423m AUD /yr EBITDA
- less 26.7% tax = 310m AUD (i.e. not including tax credits)
Conservative capex estimate:
- Renard option exercise: 63m AUD (although likely some paid in shares, to make Quebec Govt and pension fund significant holders)
- Renard upgrade: 120m AUD
- Road share: 50m AUD
- Adina capex: 30m AUD
- 2.5 years C&M: 22m AUD (in addition to 6mo C&M that initial option fee represents)
- TOTAL CAPEX: 285m AUD / 186m USD
- i.e. initial capex repaid within 1 year at full production
sensitivity:
- if AISC = 800 USD /t, then EBITDA = 369m AUD /yr
- if AISC = 850 USD /t, then EBITDA = 335m AUD /yr
- if AISC = 900 USD /t, then EBITDA = 302m AUD /yr
rough modelling based on 1350 USD /t SC6:Adina phase 1...
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