So the selloff is terrible but remember all those 7B shares...

So the selloff is terrible
but remember all those 7B shares issued at 1c-2c, the bondholders cash them in for double to take free carried interests and then the problem is there are too many shares on issue for too cheap. This was going to come back to bite and its happening now.

According to my predictions 2 weeks ago & the actuals I was almost spot on & slightly conservative:-
Rev: up from A$372mil to 498mil, my call $490M (1% difference)
Margin: up from 30m to 102mil, my call $64M (40% higher)
EBITDA: up from 20.5 to 66.2mil, my call $42M (50% higher)
EBIT: up from -26.8m to 25.38, my call $22M (10% diff)
statutory PAT: up from -114 to 18.91 mil, my call +$22M (5% diff)
Cashflow: up from 14.1 to A$94.4 mil, my call +$100Mpa (5% diff)
Shipment: 8.1 MT correct (0% diff)
Av PIO: A$61/t, actual $66 even better (9% diff)
Full Costs/AISC: A$51.75/t, actual 52.30, close to spot on (2% diff)
Debt payments, +$22M extra, none extra, surprising
Profit after Tax 22M (after impairments & writedowns), actual $18.9M, similar (10% diff)


If we extrapolate the Dec half results to the June half year my predictions are:-
Rev: up from 498mil to A$670mil
Margin: up from 102mil to $150M
EBITDA: up from 66.2mil to $100M
EBIT: up from 25.38, to $48M
statutory PAT: up from 18.91 mil, to $25M
Cashflow: up from A$94.4 mil to $150Mpa
Shipment: 8.1 MT to 8.5MT
Av PIO: A$66/t, to $79 even better
Full Costs/AISC: A$52.3/t, to 51.75
Debt payments, +$22M extra,
Profit after Tax 22M (after impairments & writedowns), actual $18.9M, to go to +$65M
On current IO price, this means  a running margin now -
94/0.77 = 122 x0.57=$70 - $52.30 = $17.70 per WMT x 16Mpa=
$283Mpa free cashflow or $24M per month

With 16/17 annual sales of AUS$1.16Bpa, free cashflow of $224M pa, strong margin of (17.7/52.3) = 34%, lowering costs and surplus cash then this should change the sentiment.


The Board has to surprise the market with
- large debt reduction payments from large free cashflow atm say $22M now then another $10M every month while they can, why aren't they doing this already!
- surprise buybacks at 3c say $10M
- surprise dividend of 0.1c per share
- boosting production while the IO price is higher
- maintaining low costs FCC

AGO can do it and its undervalued bu the Board is not responding to this opportunity, why not, who is telling them not to pay down more debt? WHo controls the Board now? Surprise surprise.