Europe is preparing for Russia to start World War3, leaked documents reveal
Europeis preparing for Russia to start World War 3, leaked documents reveal (msn.com)
Europe needsto brace for a potential war with Russia as early as thisyear or next, experts have warned, following the leaking of official documentsfrom Germany’s Ministry of Defence.
OnSunday, BILD published classified military information revealing that German armed forces are preparing for Vladimir Putin to expand his country’s war in Ukraine.
The papers hypothesise that the Russian president could attack NATO ally countries nextyear, via a “hybrid” offensive in Eastern Europe.
BILD setout multiple alarming potential scenarios that could unfold in the comingmonths, including the launch of “severe cyberattacks” on the Baltics in July,according to a New York Post translation.
Thedocuments also allegedly lay out a worst-case scenario that would see Russiatake advantage of the transition period following the US presidential election.
Duringthis time, Putin’s regime could use propaganda to announce fictional “borderconflicts” or “riots with numerous deaths” to incite violence in the SuwalkiGap area (a sparsely populated region around the border between Lithuania,Poland, and Belarus) and sow unrest, BILD reports.
InJanuary 2025, following a meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia could thenfalsely accuse Western allies of plotting to move against Putin’s regime.
He could then use these allegations to rally troops to Belarusand the Baltics by March 2025, the papers suggest.
Inthis scenario, 30,000 German troops would be deployed for defence, while anestimated 70,000 Russian forces would have gathered in Belarus, according tothe documents.
By May 2025, this military build-up could force NATO to enact“measures for credible deterrence” against further Russian incursion –resulting in a breakout of fighting between Western troops and Russian forces.
Andwhilst it’s worth noting that the plans obtained by BILD are simply theoretical scenarios that have been visualised by the German army, European allies continue to take Russia’s threat seriously.
GermanDefense Ministry officials would not comment on the specific plans laid out inthe document, but told BILD: “Considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, are part of everyday military business, especially in training.”
Meanwhile, commentators have offered their own take on how World War 3could pan out.
Fabian Hoffmann, a research fellow at the University of Oslo, wrote inan extensiveX/Twitter thread on Sunday that the West is “much closer to war against Russia than most people realize.”
He posited that “we have at best two to three years” to deter Moscow,whom he said would risk an attack on NATO’s Eastern European countries, eventhough its forces are inferior to the Western defence alliance.
“Russia does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war withNATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine and for which we are primarilypreparing,” he wrote.
“Already before taking substantial losses on the Ukranian battlefield,Russia knew that it would be inferior in such a scenario.
According to Hoffman, Russia wants to achieve a victory before NATO(largely thanks to the US) can use its military superiority against it.
Therefore, instead of engaging NATO in a "prolonged groundwar" that he cannot win, Putin would “attempt to coerce NATO intosubmission by signalling the ability to inflict progressively greater amountsof damage.”
“This would entail, in particular, long-range strikes against criticalcivilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on,” Hoffmanwrote.
“The message to NATO governments: Don't come to the support of yourEastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer.”
He then suggested that Russia would also “extend its nuclear umbrellaover any NATO territory it managed to capture.”
“This sends a second message,” he warned. “Any endeavour to retake thatterritory, particularly by external NATO forces (USA), will result in nuclearescalation.”
According to the defence expert, Russia doesn’t aim to defeat the Westmilitarily, but psychologically.
“This type of warfighting scenario is not a contest of forces, butprimarily a risk-taking competition,” he wrote.
“The question becomes: Who will be the first to back down whenconfronted with the prospect of largescale war, including potential exchangesof strategic nuclear warheads?”
He noted that the balance of military power is often determined by thebalance of resolve: “i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even asrisks are increasing.”
“This is why Russia pursues this type of strategy. Russia does not needto match NATO's conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amidmounting psychological pressure due to a lack of resolve, Russia can walk awaywith a victory.
“Here's the thing: The ongoing war in Ukraine is teaching Russia acrucial lesson - that the West lacks resolve. Domestic disunity and endlessdiscussions about escalation only reinforce Russia's belief that NATO will backdown when push comes to shove.”
Russia couldthreaten the use of nuclear warheads ((Getty Images))© Provided by Indy100
Urging NATO to “credibly deny Russia the ability to seize anysubstantial part of NATO territory or to threaten strikes against NATO criticalinfrastructure,” he warned: “We must also have a serious discussion not onlyabout how to deter a war with but also about how to fight one.”
“Are we prepared to retaliate against Russian critical civilianinfrastructure in case Russia strikes ours first? How do we react to Russiannuclear first use?” he asked.
Concluding, he went on: “What we need, especially in Europe, iswhole-of-society effort to get our affairs in order. There's no denying thatthis will come with a significant cost, but I fail to see any other viableoption.
“Considering worst-case scenarios, as we should, time has already runout.”
