I haven't seen the chart, and you could be correct no doubt, so...

  1. 19,112 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3682
    I haven't seen the chart, and you could be correct no doubt, so post the chart for sure and explain what you can see.

    And it is good that you are watching price action and understanding the different principles to some degree.

    Don't however jump to conclusions, at least not too quickly.
    A bar or two that close in the middle on decent volume, shows that 'some' supply has been drawn out (which happens all the time).
    And that supply has begun to overwhelm demand for the period of that bar (which caused the poor close).

    But to go straight to 'distribution' may be a little strong, at least initially.
    Instead, watch for the markets response, as quite often after a modest downbar or two, the supply is absorbed, and price continues on.

    Distribution is a very strong word in VSA/Wyckoff analysis (and in fact Richard Wyckoff never even used the word at all - the word came later through Wyckoff educator Bob Evens who used it to help clarify what was happening, to students ).
    Distribution usually means that once completed, price will breakdown and lose considerable ground.
    Many ASX stocks will instead of completing a true distribution (especially when the parent index remains strong), go through a series of minor supply phases, followed by a re-accumulation phases, over and over without a 'proper' distribution as such. Suprisingly (sarcastic), these phases can sometimes cycle around the end of quarters, end of years, and generally times when it benefits professionals to book profits, for their own interests.

    You will certainly see a true distribution in some smaller ASX mining stocks when they transition form explorer to producer. This is the period where professional speculators exit. It usually begins with a serious spike higher on high volume, often when the announcement if made that the stock will 'go mining' (which will usually create a strong demand). Price then generally goes sideways until the selling into the demand is completed. Following this, there is generally a period of time (where price falls considerably), before longer term professionals and fund managers begin to open positions and support the share price (if the stock is deemed good enough).

    In a nutshell, let the chart tell you what may be happening by its own action - and certainly be aware of all the scenarios that may happen - but try not to jump to conclusions until confirmed (or at least until the probabilities for a certain principle are quite high).
    Generally a period of true distribution will show sideways movement for a decent period of time, then once the selling phase is completed, short positions may be set (if available), then finally price is sold lower - 'with intent' if short positions have been set - (eg- price is marked down deliberately, in the same but opposite, fashion as the 'mark up' phase).

    cheers

    .
 
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.