Wyckoff trading method

Originally posted by RogerRamjet ↑

Terrific video @Jako8557. It coheres "the story" of the chart clearly, plausibly and compellingly. Really good stuff. Thanks.

Although one should never pre-empt the market, your analysis softens by bearish outlook (based on fundamentals). Which is just to emphasise how well I think you've identified the story. One thing I'm now clear on, is that the XJO has been in accumulation mode for the last few weeks. What I don't have a strong sense for is whether the absence of supply in this zone is merely being held back tactically for the moment. (There would be so much to gain by holding back the supply in this zone momentarily.)

In any case, as a wise man once said , one should always only listen to (and not pre-empt) the market.

1. Am I right to interpret that a consequence of your "sometimes what DOESN'T happen tells us what has happened" observation means that the current uptrend *necessarily* cannot be taken to be the market's "true" expression because the price action is resulting from only the presence of demand, not also the concurrent presence of supply?

2. From your experience, after such a market correction, can it be easily enough be confirmed (later) once that active demand/active supply tug of war is in play? (What is the key "tell"? the chart structure entering expansion phase (swings and retests) on strong volume?

Nice one Dr Jako

(Yes, I've still to respond to your other great posts you copied me in to. Just want to do a bit of research first to increase the chance of my response adding some value)

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Hey @RogerRamjet

I was just thinking about what I wrote earlier, and thought of something that I probably should have added.

The market is dynamic, it is not predetermined.

What I mean - is that the broad underlying market sentiment of a stock, a sector, a commodity, or an economy, may change at any time (for whatever reason).
It is not all worked out then put into action, with almost no chance of failure.
There are certainly plans, but once started they are constantly adjusted on the fly as time unfolds.

For instance, I feel markets around the world were not expecting the Corona Virus issue to emerge, this wrong footed some markets completely, and forced traders and buyers to react unexpectedly (and some were faster to react than others no doubt).
I feel that many (or most) markets were bullish at the time, with participants generally expecting markets to move higher.
The surprise of the Corona Virus is perhaps why markets fell so sharply in response, there were many making big changes completely 'on the fly'.

The reason I bring this up - is that you might read the chart correctly, plan and execute a beautiful entry, then find the trade fails dismally for no apparent reason.
And it might not have been your fault.

Remember, what we are generally doing in the market as short to medium term traders (not so much investors), is ride on the coat tails of professional buyers and professional speculators. They are the ones whose accumulation we see on the chart, and who encourage the market during the mark-up phase (which we see as an up-trend). They are the ones who can actually move a small and micro cap market market (at least temporarily), and they can give a decent 'push' to a larger cap market. And if their sentiment changes (for whatever reason), and they choose to dump their positions in response, you may become a casualty through no fault of your own - in fact you might have worked it out and executed your position perfectly.

So things do change, nothing is predetermined exactly.
Sure there may be a plan, but sometimes best laid plans are forced to change.

All you can do is give yourself the best chance of success - try to be in the right place at the right time, and keep your risk fairly low (or at least don't take on unnecessary risk).

cheers

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