OK I have learned over time, that you will never be able to work...

OK

I have learned over time, that you will never be able to work out or understand everything that goes on any why in the markets.
Sure, you can speculate - I do, its fine....
But you won't know for sure what happened and why on every price movement.
I have learned to simply watch for the response, and then make a judgement if it was a significant move, or not.
FWIW, that move looks like a shakeout - it may be 'engineered', or it may be organic
Just watch to see if the response if similar to what you would expect for a shakeout (generally either an up bar in response or a narrow spread downbar on less volume), and if so, just treat it as such.
If not treat it as the response suggests.

I found you can really 'do you head in' trying to understand all the why's and wherefores in a market (it would certainly make it easier and make the analysis stronger, if everything could be understood for sure). In the end I found just watching for the response, answered most of my questions anyway (albeit with the slight delay - but that is how we work anyway). We generally ride on the coat tails of larger active traders (for the most part), so the delay and confirmation process becomes second nature after a while.


cheers