It’s a bit simplistic to say they are flushing cash or diluting the stock for fun. Your analysis clearly shows admin costs are pretty static (majority fixed I assume) independent of recent market cap changes - but objectively those likely fixed admin costs are all ERL can now service: Explorer that cant explore. I simply believe ERL wouldn’t be at the total mercy of the market (pricing, dilution etc) if they’d kept a closer eye on the cash front. They now NEED a deal and will get pushed around by brokers pricing it. I had hoped to see the A Zone JORC after the placement and think this would have been sufficient news for a good uplift to raise capital from.
You are bang on – its all risk reward and none of us really know before it happens. Tomorrow they could announce a magnificent deal underwritten by BHP – wont know until it happens. We can only make decisions based on what we know currently, and mine is that I just don’t like being in a company that I think is vulnerable because its running on fumes. I see rights issue as risky for such low liquidity stock @ SP lows, capital raising risks being dominated by brokers expecting it to get cheaper…
I still like the asset base that I initially bought into, and think point kidman could be interesting albeit at the expense of the A Zone JORC we've waited too long for… Want to be in the assets, but cant take the risk on the company at the moment.
Sargeant owns less than 5%. In my mind material, but by definition not substantial.
Good luck to you too, and holders – hope it comes good for you, will be back if it does.
ERL Price at posting:
4.4¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
