"Today I believe that" So typical he thinks but with zero reasons to support his ideas.
ability to duplicate facilities around the world taking Pleas name just one project from lines that has been on time and met capacity.
KAL was over 20X over budget. and under capacity and even AL makes no claim it will reach capacity in next half dozen years.
NEXT was close to budget but even 6 years after it was suppose to be up and running Q2 2025 produced 1292 KT NdPrO Name plate was 1500KT and Next was 1800 KT.
If you give me just two projects that met Lynas's original goals I will gladly admit that I am very wrong and you are correct. I will even agree if they were 20% or less over on time, and budget, 20% or less under on capacity Texas has a good chance of meeting Finacial goals because of USG support but it was suppose to be done late 2022. I do not think even your fast tracking will bring it in less than 4x behind schedule. It is already 2 X late! when do you think it will be done
May 2019 to Jan 2023 31 months Jan 2023 to right now 28 months and still no permit to start. KAL was reasonably close to Lynas in distance and culture. Texas is further away with a different culture. Which would you expect to have more problems? So far with permitting KAL was easier and faster than Texas is now.
A rule of thumb taught is most project management classes is estimating slips. It is simple if a project slips X in the first 25% of the project, slip entire project 4 x. Now upper management will put tremendous pressure on mangers to hold schedule by adding manpower and money. It still ends up slipping more. Read the Mythical man month about IBM's 360 development True back then and still true to day. The book was first published 65 years ago but it is still in print today and recommended in many business courses that should give you a clue about how important what it says is.
Amazon.com : mythical man month book
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