Here is a link to an article on the probability of Nuke first strike options between the USA & China. It does not, however , mention Russia who as the USSR held the USA to the prospect of an unwindable Nuke war all during the Cold War. IMO, Russia has still got that capability despite it loosing its satellite states in 1990.
The current alliance between China & Russia if evolved into a Nuke pact would certainly trigger Cold War 2, IMO.except on an economic front China is a more formidable opponent on the industrial/trade/economic front than the USSR ever was, IMO.
IMO if this China-Russian alliance fuses into Nuke research & development alliance, then it has the potential to outgun the USA within a decade, IMO.#
So what can the USA do about this? It can hammer awayy at China economically while delegating the Russian problem to NATO with greater inputs expected from the EC & the UK. That has been mooted (mouted) by Trump 3 years ago when he called on EC countries 9then included the UK) to spend at east 2% of their respective GDPs on their militaries.
While Russia may align with China against the USA, Russia's prime objective is to claw back East Ukraine , Belarus & at least one baltic State to give it a land bridge to its isolated Kaliningrad and at the same time fortify its claim to Crimea, both for Naval purposes.
So in the bigger scheme of things, where does all this leave Aus?
You say eh?
# IMO modern anti-missile shields can be overwhelmed by a mass launch of mixed Nukes & decoys which would compensate for an aggressor's fewer Nuke warheads. IMO, defence shields are not sophisticated enough to sort the decoys from the Real McCoys. This surely would be a headache for all 3 sides, IMO, and further leads to the prospect of an unwindable Nuke WW.
