Well I look and I Look and I Look and I have zip... nothing Nada... except perhaps up or range trading or down... not so damn useful huh?
Okay the first timespan I wanna look at tis the weekly.
The first major points that I need to get out of the way here are:
The thick red horizontal line on Price...
that line represents the line in the sand for a weekly close to have the current run up form march being a Wave 4 out of a possible five wave elliot count.
A close and hold above this line, just barely above 5000 wil see price impacting on the marked wave 2 of the down trend from October 2007...
I actually contend that price can make it all the way up to the marked dashed histogram weekly target (long time since I mentioned this :)))) and still possibly be in a wave four, as it needs to get above that little bit of congestion to truly be in the wave two area... but that is me splitting some hairs (and a good excuse to mention that weekly target again)
Secondly, the red arrow on the far right hand side of the chart on teh MACD...
Two things here.. One... we still have divergence going on on this indicator on this timespan, the MACD moving averages are making lower highs... BUT we now have a crossover of the fast over the slow and until that there fasty crosses back down over the slowy, we is looking at up.
I would like to note however that this three peaked divergenc o the moving averages of the MACD on the DAILY twice pre-empted drops in the index on that timespan, and as such I watch this occurrence on the weekly with GREAT interest.
Finally price is ABOVE the 21 moving average at the moment... personally I beleive this is the last run up before a next ccross below this moving average which "could" be a far more significant drop than the previous one on the last low... but until we cross that there moving average, that means nowt.
Trendlines... As a third and final "thing" I am very interested in here, we are coming up to the convergence of a number of trendlines here as per the following chart:
Te thickish dark blue trendline is from the last two peaks in September 2009 and January 2010 The thin upsloping blue trendline is the trendline which acted as support from March lows, broken in late Jan 2010 and price is still beneath this trendline.
I note with interest the convergence of these two trendlines around the 5060 level oh-so-close to the Thick red line in the sand. This kinda makes me think that that there level may yet again provide an interesting area of resistance which price may have difficulty breaking through....
Onto the Daily in the hunt for clues...
I have marked out a potential wavecount here EW style, and have had this count hanging about for a while. There are alternate counts, this is by no means definitive. So far I beleive price is conforming to this count but... heh as can be seen I have question marks on teh B and the C is pure conjecture... twould be nice were this to play out this way as downside targets of around 4100 would be sweet if hit
Again if we are in a B wave, these waves are reputed to be extreme nasties to trade, and in my own personal opinion there is no denying that to be the case here.
Note the thin uptrend line on the current price action, tested a few times... a break of this line would be positive for some downside methinks.
In the meantime though price could well be said to be within an upsloping channel and as such until it breaks, upside has to be considered.
Zooming in a little bit to see localised action:
MACD moving averages are not very convincing in this last run up... without a doubt there is divergence... that is ever-so-slightly lower highs on the MACD mavs with ever so slightly higher highs on price. Definate divergence on the histograms.
Stochastic Divergence over the last week or two of price action is also showing up on the stochastic oscillator...
BUT NOTE currently on both these indicators the fast lines are above the slow, we need a conclusive cross DOWN of fast over slow to suggest downside.
Finally Price is still lower than the january high, by a measly 30 odd points... would not take much to make a higher high here, despite the lower low at A which would tend to negat the Lower High, Lower Low requirement of a down trend.
So action RIGHT NOW gives me nothing... we are barely going up, and there does not appear to be a lot of strength on the up move over the last three weeks... but up it is...
Unfortunately, lower timespans really do not provide much more in the way of information, there arre caseds for downside I beleive equally weighted for cases for upside... As stated, the pattern on the weekly MACD Moving Averages has me will interested and a quick glance at the daily above shows two examples of similar patterns where a final cross back down of the signal line over the fast heraldied a sharp fast derop, but that crossover has to happen first.
All else is conjecture.
I think I need to take a wait and see approach here, stick with intraday moves that I can get if the opportunities arise, and wait for something more definitive...
thanks be the Currencies are still moving well :)))
(20min delay)