"The uptrends have broken. RSI and MACD are heading lower on...

"The uptrends have broken. RSI and MACD are heading lower on daily and weekly. The tendency is for down . . . "

If you ask me the fed has scared the hell out of the market. Powell mentioned the "R" word multiple times and has obviously given up on a soft landing.

"Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that while he has always believed that a so-called soft landing was a “plausible outcome,” for the economy, it isn’t guaranteed and that he wasn’t willing to give up on bringing down inflation to achieve it."

Now take a look at how much the CPI jumped up in August and think about how much oil (petrol) went up this month?



And there is no chance of oil coming down with OPEC+ restricting supply - and deliberately putting the wrecking ball to the US economy.

Powell warned that what happens next may be affected by factors outside the central bank’s control that could cause unemployment to rise more than anticipated.

“A soft landing is a primary objective,” Powell said, “That's what we've been trying to achieve for all this time.” But Powell noted that the absolutely worst thing the Fed can do is to fail to restore price stability.

“The record is clear on that—if you don't restore price stability, inflation comes back,” he said. It would be “miserable” to have inflation constantly coming back and the Fed needing to tighten rates again and again. “So the best thing we can do for everyone, we believe, is to restore price stability,” Powell said.

Which means they are going keep rates high until prices come down and the fed's target is reached regardless of what happens to the economy.

Question: So, why didn't the fed simply put rates up by 25 bps on Wednesday to cool inflation and explain why?

Answer: Because many banks are in bad shape and another rate hike would push them over the cliff. In other words, the fed's main inflation lever is broken. But he has another lever, it's called the stock market.

The charts below show that recessions are always preceded by negative yield inversions (yellow highlights) and markets always crash at the start of a recession.



https://www.seeitmarket.com/u-s-economy-soft-landing-or-recession-this-year/

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/fed-september-meeting-rate-decision-powell-speech-today