Here is another good chart from twitter (opps, I mean X). It...

Here is another good chart from twitter (opps, I mean X). It shows that on average markets peak 6 months before the recession starts, then drop by a further 30% and bottom 12 months after the recession start date.

The start date of the recession is decided by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and this decision is made 9-12mths after the recession has started. So if Q4 is the first negative GDP quarter, the start date of the recession (and 30% market crash) would be 1 October. BTY, The Bank Panic of 1907, the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987 all happened during the month of October. I wonder what they will call this one?