We've been lulled into false security because we've been in a...

We've been lulled into false security because we've been in a period of stability / retracing for about 30 months now.

But the Feds funds rate generally lags by about 12 months on the U.S economy and it has never avoided a recession with a 400+ basis point hike and they passed this threshold in January 2023, so extrapolating that out we reach a date of January 2024.

U.S payrolls under 200k for 3 months has been a red alert signal for a recession historically. The lead up time median is 10 months of this to a recession so this time it'd place us at around April 2024.

Given there hasn't been much panic if you look at broader markets the narrative is going to change quickly at some point soon, it's very rare for the August-October period to pass so calmly especially when theres danger signals on the horizon.