What has changed fundamentally in the last 4 weeks even after the US CPI and PPI report?
Inflation rate seems to be coming down. Some prices are coming down. But the devil is in the details if you look closely.
Market is pricing in (1) no more interest rate hikes, (2) we beat inflation, (3) earlier than expected rate cut.
The question now will be, is the Fed going to continue be data dependent, maintain a high rate for longer and achieve a stable interest rate of 2%?
Similarly in Aus, will RBA actually take tackling inflation more seriously by maintaining a higher rate for longer? Our inflation rate is no where near the US but their interest rate is already higher.
People cry about their mortgage stress because of higher interest rate, but that's the risk they take when they are borrowing someone's money to bet on getting more money for 30 years.
The underlying -0.1% retail data shows although in the surface they are making everything look good, mom and pops are suffering underneath. It'll soon translate to people not able to afford or have to cut back more spending. How is this good for corporate earnings for the next few quarters? How is having higher debt and delinquency a good thing going forward?
Hows the US bond market going recently?
Lots of factors in play. Watch out, the roller coaster is only just starting imo.
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