Just thought I should say a quick hello, I just recently posted I had moved to a long bias on the markets with a target of 4800 to 4900 on the S+P when I got hit by covid hehehe. Why I have been quite for a couple weeks or so. Not complaining going long paid off big time and then some. Having said that though I was also anticipating a healthy market rise which this has been far from.
Meaning with expected pull backs etc as the martkets climbed steadily higher. That has not been the case so now I am on the sidelines again very nervous of what happens next. Originally if you go back to my last few posts the idea was we get a melt up top followed by the crash. And yes I was talking about a 1987 style crash which I believe is not too far away once we finish hitting new all time highs.
What bulls always forget and the reason I suddenly went long is rate pauses tend to make markets rip hard, BUT rate cuts tend to see market "crashes". So yes its all BS that rate cuts are good for markets go back and polish off the charts its usually not good news once they start. Anyway wasn't an issue because as I posted all this before I also said no point in missing out on a melt up hence I went long.
Question now is due to the "abnormal" greed we are long overdue a pullback. So will we get the higher low I orignally believed we would before resuming the upward move to hit my targets or will they rug pull since TBH they left so many gaps the charts are swiss cheese and gaps always tend to fill. IMO I think we will have a very big pullback that will feel like a crash but we will put in a higher low and bounce.
However I am going to be very careful though cause TBH since there are no bears left and if you look at the data there really isn't, max pain is in which direction? Its why we never see crashes coming.
P.S. Avoided covid all these years to finally get taken out by a family member hehehe. Note while I think we will bounce one more time I still maintain once the market tops out then we will crash as we have done each time before. Good luck all going to take it easy till New years.
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