Honestly, with this market nothing would surprise me mate. So...

Honestly, with this market nothing would surprise me mate. So you'll need to make your own mind up.

All the ingredients are there for a genuine sell off but this market seems to buy every dip whether news is good, bad or neutral.

I would love a repeat of last year which saw CBA run price from $100 up to $111 in the lead up to earnings.
Then they started a mild sell the week before earnings.

When earnings came price absolutely tanked, wiping 5.7% that day but dropping all the way down to $93 over the next 4 weeks.

There's a few things working in favour of a sell off.

For starters, the extreme overbought conditions to get CBA to where it is and if we look at momentum indicators there's negative divergence for about the last 6wks which favours (doesn't guarantee) a reversal.

Secondly, CBA report right on the opening of the 'window of weakness'.
Sure earnings and the bank crisis helped CBA sell off last year but it's no surprise the sell started around that same window.
It's also no surprise that window closed pretty hard around March Opex - just a month later.
TA is cool but I think we've all just been taught a pretty good lesson about how much flows matter.

And finally, we've just seen banks report overseas with a lot of earnings misses which saw some initial selling - before the dip crew swooped in and did what they do best. There's since been some more issues come to light in the bank sector but we'll have to see how that plays out.

Obviously what's not working in favour of a sell is that dip buying crew.
Been relentless till now so enter at your own risk.

I'm in for April puts and may add to that position prior to earnings but wouldn't be much more and only if the opportunity was there as I've got enough.

Anyway, I'll let you decide for yourselves...

All the best

CBA Daily
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