What about unfunded liabilities, the US government debt divided by the total population is over 100k each and that includes babies, then you have unfunded liabilities out into the future the total adds up to $500k per person. They are not going to stop money printing, they built this system up since 2008, as if they will get religion and say we need to follow a budget and pay down the debt.
A black swan I think could happen is if you believe this, a cabal of criminals have taken over the government (over decades maybe since 1913, took control of the media etc), they spent the money illegitimately and not in the name of the US tax payers and because of this the tax payers can refuse to pay the debts and that is fair if someone stole your credit card, that would be deflationary or could be hyper inflationary, it's nearly always the latter in a fiat system.
I think holding any western government debt is a really bad idea.
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