XJO 1.36% 7,838.8 s&p/asx 200

We won't see a correction in stocks until after the Fed cuts...

  1. 637 Posts.
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    We won't see a correction in stocks until after the Fed cuts rates historically speaking.

    "During the last nine times, the Federal Reserve paused raising interest rates and then proceeded with rate cuts, the transitional pause period usually witnessed a spike in stock prices. Interestingly, though, once the actual rate cuts started, the market wasn’t kind to investors."

    This is what we're seeing at the moment, Fed has paused and stocks have spiked higher.

    "One might assume that lowering interest rates would automatically benefit the stock market, as it reduces the cost of borrowing and encourages spending. However, the relationship between rate cuts and stock performance is more nuanced. When the Fed cuts interest rates, it often attempts to counter an economic slowdown or prevent a recession. In these situations, the underlying economic conditions may outweigh any potential benefits of lower interest rates."

    A recession/hard landing appears inevitable.

    "Although the stock market has been rallying in anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, historical data indicates that investors might need to brace themselves for a possible downturn after the commencement of these rate cuts. Stock portfolios have historically experienced significant declines following rate cuts, often around 23%."

    23% correction for the current market would be a positive result because given the hysteria a 40%-50% correction may be warranted.

 
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