"Apllo's Torsten Slok says fed will not cut rates in 2024...

"Apllo's Torsten Slok says fed will not cut rates in 2024 because the US economy is not slowing down."

That's probably why they plan to have a mini-banking crisis to slow things down over the next 3-4 months. They will then patch that up and cut rates which will trigger a rally for the following 4mths to get Biden re-elected. Meanwhile, Yellen is issuing trillions in short term bonds which will keep the yield curve inverted and the recession pushed into 2025. (i.e. Recessions happen when the yield curve un-inverts.)

The top chart (posted by wave4) shows how, on average, the market behaves in election years, I have added that, plus the storyline above, to the S&P500 to predict how the market should play out over the next year or two. (bottom chart).

Reason => We have to accept that we live in a world where the "script" is all that matters and the media, gov, fed, markets, etc. all play along with the script. If I didn't know better, I'd say over the last 12mths the script has been all about helping Biden stay in power and that script is likely to continue. I don't think Biden is lucky, I just think a lot of very powerful people do not want Trump to win the election and that is overriding everything.

If the S&P500 breaks the long term trend to the upside (i.e. the red trend in bottom chart), then all bets are off and we need to reassess the situation.