Yep, the ERP seems to have gone right out the window, along with so many other economic metrics, however it cant go on indefinitely. I thought the last paragraph was succinctly put. As it alludes, the market is all "hopium".
Fundies have gone ‘full bull’. Is it time to sell?
For weeks, Vantage Point’s Nick Ferres has been trimming his equity exposure and pointing out that the equity risk premium (ERP) – that is, the gap between the earnings yield of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield – suggests that the compensation investors are getting for owning overvalued equities is extremely poor. Indeed, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday night that ERP has hit a 22-year low, falling into negative territory.
Lower ERP can be a predictor of a big upswing in earnings, which is exactly what the market sees. But can that be delivered in the higher-for-longer environment that bond yields are predicting?
After an impressive run on markets, Kolanovic says investors should be wary.“For a market reliant on immaculate disinflation, a dovish Fed reaction function, and diminishing tail risks on growth, the continuation of hot growth and inflation data can bring us to a tipping point, where a tighter stock versus bond risk premium finally produces a market correction,” he says.
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