I understand your view, but if the buyers are not there to fill...

I understand your view, but if the buyers are not there to fill the auction, then the highest bid filled is what all the buyers have the rate set at. @kacy pointed out a few weeks ago the auction wasn't well received, and the rates were higher than expected, so the Fed pulled the auction (if I recall correctly).

Also, if China is reducing their exposure to the bonds as per the video I posted a few days ago, then it reinforces that the buyers are drying up and interest rates on the bonds will increase.

I read / heard that the 10 year is used as the basis for the interest rates at the time of their decisions as this is market based. If this starts to rise above 5%, then the Fed cannot leave their interest rates at the present levels. I am sure that some of the Fed chairs understand this and therefore equates to certain people saying they are expecting higher interest rates going forward. Even if Powell is telling everyone that interest rates are not going higher, when the market determines this is not the case, then Powell will need to change his rhetoric.

I am sure we can all remember when Powell told everyone that inflation was transitory, and no rate rises were on the cards... until they couldn't hold the rates low for longer and had to concede they were wrong...

I am totally and 100% positive that Powell will be right this time... or maybe we head to a fully blown recession and then there will be no need to raise interest rates. I am thinking that he is quietly hoping for the second option