XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-16368

TBH talk about a melt up doesn't seem to match the major moves down at present. The bubble is popping as more news comes out about how badly companies are expecting the future to be. The AI push over the last few months is now looking like a Air Implosion with no realistic substance behind the moves over the last year. As pointed out by others, a repeat of the 2000s crash. History never repeats except the enthusiasm for the next gold rush. Based upon prior moves, gold too will lose its shine in this downturn.

Commodities are the only measure of true substance and creation in an economy but those values are dropping across a range of areas. This highlights lessening demand and deflation.

A number of YouTube channels have pointed if interest rates are going to be lowered, this will likely cause a situation of hyper inflation. As I posted the other day, US markets would likely surge (a melt up caused by factors that people don't want to hear about) as the value of the USD plummets (eg Argentina). At the same time it is assumed that commodity prices would surge across the globe. Bond buyers would expect higher returns for the risk as their value would diminish. This might cause the US to become bankrupt and default on their bonds reducing the value by half or more.

Michael Burry posted on twitter a while back and recently pointed out on YouTube, the US markets are in a bad situation due to passive investing funds pushing towards the same 7-8 stocks. Are we seeing this start to unravel as these funds start to dump based upon rebalancing? Yes there will be some BTFD buyers that push this up but the trend will be down for a while.

With the massive amount of US debt held by Japan (and much lower value), is this why their yen has fallen and now their markets heading towards turmoil? Similar to US bank unrealised losses on their bonds but on a much larger scale. Something is looking like ours getting closer to breaking and then reality hits hard.