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"IF@onetricky's post is correct about a revision to the...

  1. 9,988 Posts.
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    "IF@onetricky's post is correct about a revision to the Employment data is correct, then it is economic WW3"

    That is a big IF my esteemed friend @Ewebute of the internet.
    And since the source of the post is a tweet from zerohedge who are certified lunatics, the chance of the post being correct is zero.

    What is really happening on August 21, is a routine annual event, which is described in the following BLS document:

    The horse’s mouth

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6393/6393609-5cf418cf40c5681ee74cd6499b1c9862.jpg

    The Monthly employment data (Current Employment Statistics) are Survey Data and thus subject to estimation error (assumed statistics knowledge). Once a year, the CES Survey Data are reconciled/aligned with the Quarterly Census of Employment (QCEW) which are comprehensive. This improves the accuracy of the Current Employment Statistics.

    Is it a fiddle? Of course not. From the same BLS document linked above, benchmark revisions are as likely to be upward as they are to be downward.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6393/6393623-64477536c01201b08fad7812777dd324.jpg

    The choice is yours. You either roll with current survey data (most people do) which are at most 1 month old, or you wait for the census data which are (admittedly) more accurate but as much as 6 months old.




 
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