Actually same thing happened in 2008 as we approached the crash (bears started to become very active). Retail are always wiped out by volatility, 100's of points up and down in the same night wipes out both bulls and bears. The easy money has already been made and what is left of retail IMO are either already all in or on the sidelines having walked away waiting for a better buy in (hence so many quiet threads).
Which now means the only way markets can "melt up" in a big way IMO is if the smart money/big boys, essentially give retail a "free ride" and run the markets up for them at their own expense and save all the bag holders. They never give anyone a "free ride" so if we are reaching a saturation point, meaning not enough sheep left to fleece to make it worthwhile then they will simply take the most profitable path down, clean out what's left of the bulls, pocket the money and re-set the markets.
This assumes of course that there is no substantial retail money remaining or willing to enter the market. I could be wrong and there is, but looking at household savings now starting to turn negative and the huge levels of record historic household debt I would say retail are maxed out and leveraged to the hilt. Not much dry powder left IMO unless you are Mr Buffet but there is only one Buffet always ahead of the game.
While I am not saying we crash tomorrow, although I do think we are about to have a big pullback, I do believe the writing is on the wall for all to see, meaning the crash is not far away and hence we have all this melt up talk now. "Don't worry we melt up first then we crash, plenty of time to still get out". Of course the big boys/smart money always give retail plenty of time to get out right? hehehe.
P.S. Its all the melt up talk that has me the most worried, its starting to feel exactly like 2008/1987 more and more by the day. Its just so easy to make money right? I think the bears are starting to smell a crash coming hence they are starting to come out of hibernation as they have done in the past. Good luck all.
(20min delay)