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You say no one can see the crash coming but then say that you...

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timbuckley

2,801 Posts.

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09/09/24

18:40

Post #: 75597522
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Originally posted by TheReaper: ↑

Good question TBH. A crash isn't a one day event obviously nor is it a one month event, traders are too easily confused by what happened during Covid and think that was a crash. A real crash happens over months and even potentially longer. Personally, I believe the crash has already started as I have posted previously.

Even though I still think we have one more push higher, (again as posted), this is IMO still all part of the topping process that is also part of a crash. I often say no one sees a crash coming and in 2008 that was the famous catch cry and this IMO is the reason because you never actually know you are in it before its too late.

The VIX popping to over 60 was one potential giveaway. The collapse of the Japanese markets then the sudden bounce was another. That sort of volatility only happens in crash cycles IMO. Assuming I am correct this is obviously the early stages but the warning signs are everywhere that the crash has already begun.

Hence the real question in my mind is when will everyone realise it? That I have no answer for. Now I realise I said the following in my post above and I should have been a little clearer (that's on me):

"It is possible the markets come apart now before the rate cuts versus after the cuts but I will stick with history which says after the rate cut."

So to clarify I was talking about the blood that follows and when people realise too late they are in a crash. I hope that all makes sense been up all night so things get foggy hehehe. But IMO yes I think its already begun and we are in the process now. Good luck bud.

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You say no one can see the crash coming but then say that you can see one coming.

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