XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-17375

"P.S. My position remains unchanged one final push higher to fill the gaps on the S&P and Nasdaq with the Nasdaq which I believe has already topped to make a lower higher and the S&P I think to make a new high."


My position has still not changed I believe the crash has already started and we are in a topping process and that will see one final push higher resulting in what I mentioned above. Of interest is the last time rates were cut heading into a recession was September 2007:

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/#:~:text=With the economy ailing, the,in less than a year.

With the economy ailing, the FOMC started reducing rates in September 2007, eventually slashing rates by 2.75 percentage points in less than a year."

Markets rallied for about 4 weeks before the following happened:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bear_market_of_2007–2009#:~:text=On October 11, 2007, the,with a close at 10,365.45.

On October 11, 2007, the DJIA hit an intra-day peak of 14,198.10 before starting to screech. The decline of 20% by mid-2008 was in tandem with other stock markets across the globe.

This ended up becoming the crash of 2008 with the US markets falling over 50 percent from their highs by the end of it:

https://www.********/investing/stock-market/basics/crashes/

...but by September 2008, the major stock indexes had lost almost 20% of their value. The Dow didn't reach its lowest point, which was 54% below its peak, until March 6, 2009. It then took four years for the Dow to fully recover...

And we are about to cut interest rates again in September heading into a recession? I believe the crash has started but last time the collapse took about 4 weeks after the first rate cut to happen. Are we going to see something similar again?

As I have said in previous post, we aren't far away just waiting IMO for one final push higher and bulls to start calling a new bull market. They will arrive here to troll us bears not realizing they are really trolling themselves (just like are doing now).

P.S. 2008 was an election year in the US didn't stop the crash, note I am assuming we go higher first we might not: