S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) - XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-17471 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by wave4: ↑

I agree with you council rates & home/content insurance have sky rocketed in Australia. The high cost of home insurance premiums P***** me off as I have NEVER made a single claim in xx years & it's all because council allows homes to be built in flood prone area's.
Just like with your bogan indicator I like to look at Queues at major attractions / empty seats on planes for signs of a recession.
Was on a trip to Europe this year just before the Olympics & the queues to major attractions like "the Louvre" or the "Vatican" museum are very much bigger than on previous visits. You now have to book weeks in advance to join a queue at a particular time slot.

Visitor Numbers
Many other observations like high costs for meals, few empty seats point to increasing demand.
Looking at the makeup of the my fellow travellers on my tour other than one other couple from Oz everyone else was from the US. Probably highlights the power of the US consumer. I think many on this forum including myself forget's what drives equity prices ?
Its Earnings & rates.
I was surprised when I looked at the last update from Factset. If we are heading to a "major US crash" we should see many more companies issue a negative guidance (only 67 ) & calls about the topic recession (30).

FACT SET (SPX earnings)

I agree we are very likely heading for a correction.
The probability for a 50bps cut has gone up from 25% to 59% in a month while the 25 bps cut has gone down from 75% to 41% probability.

A lot more complicated if Trump wins & implements his China tarrifs. The billions he thinks he collects from China is really being paid by the US importers which will then be passed onto the US consumer. A tarrif war will not be good for free trade. Any increase in Company taxes by Kamala is also not good for earnings. Look forward to see what Mr Market thinks

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"I was surprised when I looked at the last update from Factset"

I wasn't surprised. The market may well crash, but it won't be because of bad corporate earnings

From your attached link, FactSet say:
11% YoY earnings growth for S&P 500, the highest since 2021.
80% of companies exceed estimates (above the 5-year average)

I follow earnings and revenue trends for the 1800 largest US listed companies, my observations
5.5% YoY GAAP earnings growth.
5% YoY revenue growth (and all-time record revenues) - the following graph is from my records.

Another interesting fact - Virtually no bankruptcies in the Top 2000 US listed companies (only Silicon Valley Bank and some winery in California which barely scrapes into the Top 2000. Even bloody Signature Bank still has a pulse).

Anyway, regarding all the recession talk (apart from the fact that it has been predicted by Youtube lunatics every day for the past 2 years) the second Q2 preliminary estimate came in at a robust 3% annual rate, even though it does not include (yet) corporate earnings which are a GDP component part of the final GDP number.
Other components of GDP such as private consumption and Government spending are also through the roof, so I dont know how these intellectual pygmies think that this is recession fodder. You cant help stupid, I suppose.