All 3 indices have similar but different points of interest ... which do you listen to lol (lazy hand drawn lines)
Dow a break of 35250 - couple of times hit
S&P 500 break of 4560 - touched twice
Nasdaq has broken the similar pattern level... It will need to stay above 15070 level which had a couple of bounces.
Do we have a smash down close at the end? Maybe...
As I say, its all about the spare money for buying the dip.. The last 30 mins on US might have been seeing if there was much money left. If that is the case they have proven there is little out there otherwise it would have held.
There are a few thoughts I have (repeating old ones also)...
- Most funds are sitting on a pile of cash. If they don't use it soon, their performance will drop and therefore their share prices like GS etc.
- They get better returns from a 50% drop than a 5% rise. Limited benefit for pushing prices higher.
- Yields trigger has been pulled and the reaction was very negative. After additional sell off of shares, I think there will be a massive spike in yields via dumping of bonds etc. This will add to the trigger of a rate increase collapse.
- Maybe the weakness is retail has no money left.. therefore it will be a game of which funds cash out further first. I saw there was a large amount of money invested into shares by retail in December with a lot on margin / debt. If retail haven't gotten a return due to weak markets many wont invest further. At the same time and early Jan, funds were cashing out of Tech and other risky segments - they learnt their 2000 lessons.
- Is it worth the funds pushing to get more retail in (which might get them caught if other funds jump the gun and start to sell) - probably not.
- Bill Ackman has met with the Fed.. "They have to push rates". He's admitted he's massively short the markets. Buffett similar comments and cashed up (he doesn't know what shorting is...). If the instos push, they are likely to get burnt so they will sell into any push.
- Invasion by Russia... will it affect markets... not sure... depends on commodity reactions etc. Oil I think has priced it in already, otherwise it would have jumped on the news of Biden speech. The fear of war has pushed it up, but war itself is a downer on oil and the economy. Investigate Sadam invasion of Kuwait - oil fell after the event (from what I recall).
Longer term, I am not worried about a sustained push. There might be a few tests up, but they are unlikely to give it a big heave. I think shorts are pretty safe at the moment. Will re-assess in the morning
(20min delay)