XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-18143

Good points, wave4 keeping it real as usual. That is why I do encourage people to always pull out to a larger timeframe say 5 years minimum, instead of a smaller one which exhibits non linear behaviour which can be misinterpreted. Case in point.

Deutschland ist eigentlich im SCHEISSE!!!

If you're a trading noob like Lord Bhags-R-Us for eg, you can post a month on month retail sales chart for Germany and say currently its out of the park. But the reality is, its just rebounding from a slump. Overall, Its just average, pivoting around the mean for which you would expect from an economy with an expanding population, and therefore consumption.


Anyone who thinks Germany is doing well obviously has his finger off the pulse (or somewhere else).
Unemployment is 6%, not terrible, but not fantastic either, but full time empoyment back to year 2000 levels. despite the population having increased by ~2.5% since 2000.



Falling GDP per capita. We'll have to watch this and see it if rebounds and powers on, but my guess is with all else going on, "How about no?!!"



All leading to falling productivity, despite the high labour participation rate. (almost 80%). No productivity gains for 20 years.