XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-22725

I agree with you that the indexes have stalled. My crystal ball is confused with the next direction. Massive EOM moves here and around the globe.

We went from under $6B Friday turnover to $22B on the match including after moves ($6B more after the initial match). That is the highest level that I have monitored for EOM trading.

If I were to bet on a market move, I would consider the French index again. It is generally weak and there was a massive amount of turnover there too. I still think there is one more major leg up here and globally (which would sucker in the last of the bulls or those who fenced sat for the last month). Then we might get some better direction (likely down) once that event has been completed.

I would also consider @Un1qu3Nam3's post earlier. If China starts to make some moves in the Rare Earths availability, then it might lead to other situations which could affect Oz markets. Consider the sabre rattling over the weekend. China is a threat to this region. If we play this wrong, it will be ScoMo issues starting again. Do you think the tariffs on Oz Steel has anything to force our hand on policy?

This time China has a few more options with where they get their supplies from too. I mentioned concerns relating to Oz materials market months ago. Some areas might have growth as we can supply to the US, but other areas such as the IO sub-sector, might be hard pressed to find new buyers quickly.

If we lose the materials market with Chinese moves, this will have a massive dampener over the whole Oz markets. Our money would dry up quickly, and the housing market gamble that many are undertaking at present, will create a massive implosion.

@gve mentioned issues with the debt. I totally agree with that too. I mentioned previously there is starting to be a crisis in the amount of money that is available for lending by the banks. They are starting to turn off the taps. Maybe not in Oz as much, but if this does occur around the globe (as banks start to fear the ability of lenders to repay loans), then it will also flow onto Oz credit markets.

Yields have stayed elevated and actually risen since their September lows last year. This is massive caution from the banks and buyers of this debt. They want to have a higher return for their risks. Inflation is not under control (it just had a small breather - tariffs might have an additional impact but time will tell). The main thing about the tariffs, multiple businesses might exit the importing of sub-items and therefore affect their manufacturing process in the interim. This will have an impact on jobs also.



I have suggested to friends and family to get out of debt or try to reduce it as quickly as possible. I think that might be a good idea.