True. Israel is shaping its bigger ME plans, and needs US help...

True. Israel is shaping its bigger ME plans, and needs US help now. Like I mentioned before, neither Israel nor Iran is capable of sustaining an intensive war for more than 2 weeks against the other side. First week is almost gone, and Israel now needs to drag US in. All indications are US will get involved very soon. Trump is meeting with Pakistan -- clearly wants to assure them, and makes sure they won't get involved with nukes.

I see a few possible outcomes:

- Iranian government collapses (most likely). Likely outcome would be chaos and internal war. Slim chance that people get their act together, and create a stable democratic system. But experience suggests 9 out of 10 regime collapse due to war won't lead to democracy.

- Russia and China interfere. I do not see them being ready to do that. Russia have significant benefit filling Iran's position in energy market. I am sure they are now balancing the pros and cons. But I think they already have their hands full against Ukraine and EU. Even if Russia interferes and the Iranian government survives, and the country becomes a security state. Going from a semi-dictatorship that it is to a full North-Korea style dictatorship.

- Moderate figures convince the Mullahs that their time is up and have them accept defeat and hand over the power to them to save the country from Chaos and US intervention. Then they try to establish a democratic system. Highly unlikely. They had decades to take that decision. Too late by now.