XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-23442

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-co...ing-of-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-202506270600

Breaking: US core PCE inflation rises to 2.7% in May vs. 2.6% expected


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/pce-inflation-report-may-2025-.html

Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows


Seems like the effects of the tariffs are starting to finally show up in the data? From what I am reading, all the goods bought to front run the tariffs are starting to finally run out, hence as expected inflation is again beginning to gain momentum? However, the "good news" (if you can call it that), as I have said many times and something retail for the most part haven't quiet grasped is that tariffs are so inflationary they are actually deflationary by default.

Meaning eventually when you destroy the consumers purchasing power through much higher prices and they can no longer buy what they used to, you create a snow ball effect throughout the entire economy which results in, lay offs, bankruptcies, delinquencies etc etc, which then feeds off itself until you end up with what will be a major recession? But again the "good news" while many are totally wiped out the reset does set the stage for the next boom bust cycle.

I am also reading since tariffs are around 15 percent on average currently (remember autos, steel etc are much higher) many are claiming by "modern standards" that equates to what tariffs were back around 1929? Which as many argue lead to the Great Depression as the global economy collapsed? Mind you we didn't have the debt issues we have now though. But while I don't think a depression is coming obviously a major recession (worst I will have seen) is IMO.

I say that because even if they drop tariffs eventually and get back to the idea of "free trade again" which I think they will be forced to do, by that stage the damage will have been done. But of course deflation which has already begun, China the best example where the massive spending they are undertaking to try to "reinflate" the economy is completely failing (as I keep saying diminishing returns), won't worry retail because "the stock market isn't the economy"?

That is also true until its not. But don't worry what would an old bear know after all markets were green again last night and we are testing all time highs (as I said we might), so how can the good times ever end? We will just keep doing this forever? Hmmm...its starting to feel like 1929 again? Good luck all .