XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-240

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JethroJ

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21/01/22

13:17

Post #: 59040448
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Originally posted by iminvestor101: ↑

firstly whats your definition of a crash? the evidence is in the historical charts, look at 2018 for example. bear market but not a crash. interest rates going up in march is a given but the number of times the fed will raise is uncertain.

as far as inflation goes, well thats a mystery neither you or i or anyone for that matter can predict. there is no doubt supply chains are adding to that issue and they will be eased over time. saying inflation only goes down on quantitative easing is anything but universal law.

the slow down in the the rate of change for ppis and cpis is there, just look at the last stats.

i guess the main question is that you need to provide the reason why we are expecting a crash. even yield curves are not pointing to an imminent crash, the widest followed indicators of a crash. we are currently repricing and taking some profit off the table.

i understand youre all excited because youve made a right call, but the markets are not in for a crash as that "crash" is happening as we speak. march 2020 capitulation was a crash. this is merely a correction where idle money will be deployed because TINA.

my money is for the indexes to see rangebound trading action with the top set in december.

and if markets continue to decline, it will probably cut the rate hike expectations along with inflation expectations which should coincide with continued improvement of supply chains.

anyone adding a short at the current levels is not getting the right price at all imo. "these markets havent even started to fall" sounds like irrational exuberance. markets havent even started to fall LOL. what do you call ~7.6% from the top on the sp500? plus the continuing rolling corrections inside all indexes....

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Dude, we are 30 points under the December "santa rally"

Which started precisely 30 days ago, so in 30 days, we have "corrected" 30 points.

The index definitely could show strength from any point, but right now we have barely even moved down from last year, let alone "corrected"

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