S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) - XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), 62231844, page-2881 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by Ewebute: ↑

1) People forget inflation was exported to low wage countries such as China from 1980s. This impacted the cost of good more and now that China's costs are going up, this is once again, adding to the inflation situation.
2 & 3) Agreed
4 & 5) Debateable. The central banks were saying transitory when they should have realised their stimulus started the inflation issues. As to 3, they are using that as a reason why prices are now high. CBs haven't really started their QE properly. Govts using 3 as a blame game again.
6) I have pointed out in multiple posts that the rises in interest rates in 1980s was less impactful than what will come. I think rates in 80s started around 10% then went to 16%+: 60% rise. Rates now are starting around 3% and will need to rise to over 6% which means an increase of over 100%. Tack onto that the flow on effect of unemployment which we didn't have in 2008 from reduced China buying, there will be less money in the economy and therefore have a greater impact on house prices this time around. I would expect 20-30% reduction at a minimum towards the end of the year and may be greater into next year.
7) We will have a greater impact based on China economy contracting. This can be seen already with data associated with construction etc.
8) Hopefully they are right Looking at the German situation, they are in contraction and China supplies a lot to that region.
9) The infrastructure required for alternatives is going to take time. US is bailing on Euro zone countries after their initial promises with Gas etc and now everyone is calling for price caps. Look to Saudi's turning off the supply if that occurs, then you might see a surge in oil or complete collapse in the global economy which will lead to low oil prices and further relationship issues with the middle east and the west.

10) Agreed. This is more likely to occur than a reduction in issues especially relating to Ukraine.

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Not a technical analysis, but I would add:
Not only are households more in debt in 2020, but I think most other metrics are terrible compared to the 70s
People are more obese and sickly
We are a service economy now. Even though we have tradesmen, we don't build or produce much, especially on a small level
Individuals themselves are overall much less self-sustaining. How many people can swing a hammer (or even own one?) and how many have veggie gardens
Technology is advanced, but planned to be obsolete. Things are not easily fixed, and our supply chain is ruined (deliberately or not)
No easy pathway to cheap electricity/fuel

Many people seem to be signed up to all sorts of subscription services to outsource their lives, and are fully unaware of how shaky all sorts of infrastructure around them is. Combined with the "never seen high interest rates" we have a large portion of the populace that thinks that food, water, electricity and government handouts are a given and should be a human right.

We've also seen demographic-shifting levels of immigration the past few decades and are far from a unified, homogenous nation. There will be much less "acting in the greater good" and much more "securing what I can for me".

I think any organic recovery would be incredibly slow, unless we have a radical shift from globalism. Otherwise, the recovery might be based on things like UBI or Central Bank Digital Currencies, which honestly is about the same as kicking the can down the road in 2008. As they say, you can print money but you can't print oil or an oil tanker.