I'm 50/50 on a global recession as I think there is a huge...

I'm 50/50 on a global recession as I think there is a huge buffer in job openings to unemployed people that central banks can use to achieve a soft landing. Having said that they historically have never achieved it by raising rates greater than 3.5% or when there's been a recession in Europe.

But if there is a recession in 2023 I have some price targets in mind - SP500 3000 and XAO 5500

The reason for this is that based on valuations at those levels of:
SP500 = Forward PE 13.5x and Shiller PE 21x
XAO = Trailing PE Yield 7.5% and Trailiing Dividend Yield 5.3%

Would all be in the cheapest 10-15% percentiles of the past 30 years.

Then you use various factors for what a base case performance return in the next 10 years may look like:

Per Year:
Inflation 2.5%
GDP 2% (generally earnings equate to nominal GDP so inflation + gdp)
Dividend 6.5% (partially franked)
PE Expansion 1.5% (from buying at cheap decile)
= Total 12%

No expertise or stock picking or active requirements if we get to the target level which then provides a base case for 12% passive income for a decade.